Spot silicon metal transactions rose less than futures, polysilicon production cut plan is expected from multiple leading manufacturers [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM September 17 News:

Silicon Coal

Price: Silicon coal market prices held steady this week. The average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was 880 yuan/mt, granular coal averaged 990 yuan/mt, silicon coal in Shaanxi averaged 775 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal in Ningxia averaged 1,100 yuan/mt, bonding coal in Xinjiang averaged 1,700 yuan/mt, and non-bonding silicon coal was 810 yuan/mt.

Supply: Affected by tightening raw coal supply in Xinjiang, silicon coal supply also contracted, while supplies in other regions remained relatively stable.

Demand: Overall demand remained rigid, but due to price divergence of silicon coal across regions, silicon plants mostly opted for coal blending to control costs.

Silicon Metal

Price: Spot silicon metal transaction center rose this week. Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous day, and #441 silicon was at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt, also up 100 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the main silicon metal contract SI2511 opened at 9,000 yuan/mt yesterday, reached a high of 9,130 yuan/mt, a low of 8,855 yuan/mt, and closed at 8,915 yuan/mt, up 115 yuan/mt from the previous day. Northern silicon enterprises maintained active willingness to sell, with some offering more competitive prices than trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market. The spot transaction increase this week lagged behind the futures market.

Production:

Operating capacity in the north increased in September compared to August, and national silicon metal production continued to rise.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: As of September 11, SMM statistics showed total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 539,000 mt, up 2,000 mt WoW. This included 119,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 2,000 mt WoW, and 420,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), flat WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: Current offers were 10,700-10,900 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. Supported by pre-sold orders, monomer plants generally raised offers slightly.

D4: Current offers were 10,700-12,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: Current offers were 11,000-11,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw Rubber: Current offers were 11,700-12,000 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone Oil: Current offers were 12,800-13,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Due to the gradual resumption and increased operating rates of previously idled monomer units, overall supply increased this week.

Inventory:

Currently, as monomer plants focus on delivering pre-sold orders, enterprise inventory levels are basically stable WoW.

Polysilicon

Price

The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon is 50-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon is 49-50 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index is 52.15 yuan/kg. Market prices rose slightly. Recently, downstream wafer prices increased, industry meetings were held as scheduled, and market sentiment recovered. Currently, newly signed orders are mostly above 50 yuan/kg. Several leading manufacturers have production cut plans, but polysilicon inventory pressure still requires continuous monitoring.

Production

Domestic polysilicon production in September is expected to be around 130,000 mt. Currently, it remains in surplus compared to downstream demand, but some hoarding occurred earlier in the wafer segment. For October, several leading manufacturers already have production cut plans, and production is expected to decline.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory fluctuated rangebound this week. Polysilicon order signing slowed down, but some tail orders are still being shipped. Crystal pulling plants are actively seeking low-priced orders.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for N-type 18X wafers are 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and N-type 210RN wafers are 1.4-1.45 yuan/piece. This round of price increases is mainly cost-driven. Trading volume for 183mm wafers is significantly better than the other two sizes. Actual trading conditions still need to be monitored.

Production

Wafer production increased significantly MoM in September. Several specialized domestic enterprises raised production, achieving a tight supply and demand balance for the month after the increase. Raw material prices and downstream transmission still need to be observed.

Inventory

Wafers transitioned from destocking to a slight inventory buildup. Overall inventory remains at a reasonable level.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices for inner layer sand are 59,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle layer sand are 27,000-33,000 yuan/mt, and outer layer sand are 17,000-22,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable this week, and imported sand trading also stabilized temporarily. Crucible enterprise demand was relatively average this week. Domestic sand price pressure resistance strengthened, and prices are expected to start dropping slightly soon.

Production

Quartz sand operating rates increased slightly this week. Domestic enterprise production increased due to higher capacity utilization at some firms.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory began to rise this week, and a supply surplus situation started to emerge.